AGP Executive Report

Raúl Castro Indictment Fallout: The U.S. unsealed and expanded criminal charges tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, and Cuba immediately called it a “political maneuver” meant to justify escalation. Havana Mobilization: Thousands rallied outside the U.S. embassy chanting “Viva Raúl,” with President Díaz-Canel and Castro family members attending, while Cuba’s Council of State condemned the DOJ move as dishonest manipulation. Pressure Turns Personal: Washington also moved on GAESA-linked networks, including the arrest of Adys Lastres Morera after the State Department terminated her green card, spotlighting the military-run conglomerate at the center of the economic squeeze. War-Rhetoric Escalates: As the USS Nimitz strike group arrived in the Caribbean and Rubio said a negotiated deal is “not high,” Cuba told citizens to prepare for war amid rolling blackouts and fuel shortages. Legal Squeeze on Cuba: The U.S. Supreme Court cleared the door for lawsuits over confiscated Havana docks, raising stakes for cruise lines and adding another front to the pressure campaign.

Military Threat Talk: Trump says “it looks like I’ll be the one” to intervene in Cuba, while Rubio calls Havana a “national security threat” and says diplomacy with the current leadership is unlikely. Legal Pressure: The U.S. indictment of former President Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown is framed as a turning point—Cuba calls it a “political provocation” with no legal basis. Street Response: Thousands of pro-government Cubans rallied before the U.S. embassy in Havana, chanting “Viva Raúl,” as Diaz-Canel and Marrero attended. Detentions & Pressure Beyond Politics: ICE arrested Adys Lastres Morera, revoking her green card over alleged GAESA-linked ties, as Washington tightens its Cuba campaign. Humanitarian Strain: Fuel shortages and blackouts continue to hit hospitals and daily life, with UN-linked reporting warning of deadly impacts. Global Pushback: China and Russia reiterate support for Cuba’s sovereignty and oppose U.S. “judicial” and force threats.

Diplomacy in Doubt: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a negotiated deal with Cuba is “not high” as the Trump administration keeps ratcheting pressure. Military Pressure: Trump again floated possible U.S. intervention, while the USS Nimitz strike group arrived in the Caribbean amid rising tensions. Legal Escalation: The U.S. unsealed murder and conspiracy charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, with international backlash from Russia and China. Targeting GAESA: ICE arrested Adys Lastres Morera in Miami after Rubio revoked her green card, linking her to GAESA, the military-run conglomerate that dominates Cuba’s economy. Humanitarian Push: A Catholic bishop in Florida urged emergency collections and supplies for starving Cubans. Courts, Too: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled cruise lines can be sued over use of confiscated Havana port property, keeping Cuba-related litigation—and costs—front and center.

DOJ Indicts Raúl Castro: The U.S. unsealed federal murder and conspiracy charges against 94-year-old Raúl Castro over the 1996 “Brothers to the Rescue” shootdown, with Acting AG Todd Blanche saying Washington will pursue anyone who kills Americans “no matter how much time has passed.” Havana Fires Back: Cuba’s government calls it a “political manoeuvre” with “no legal foundation,” arguing the planes violated Cuban airspace and that Cuba acted in “legitimate self-defense.” Pressure Campaign Widens: The indictment lands as the U.S. sends the USS Nimitz carrier group into the Caribbean and Rubio delivers a Spanish “new path” message to Cubans. China and Russia Push Back: Beijing warns the U.S. against “judicial stick” tactics and threats of force; Russia promises continued support for Havana. Legal Fight Beyond the Island: In a separate blow, the U.S. Supreme Court revived Helms-Burton claims tied to confiscated Cuban docks, reviving compensation efforts by U.S. cruise operators. Military Signaling: Cuba also test-fired an upgraded air-defense system amid rising U.S. pressure.

Legal Escalation: The U.S. Justice Department has indicted 94-year-old former Cuban president Raúl Castro on murder and conspiracy charges tied to the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes operated by the Miami exile group Brothers to the Rescue, with prosecutors saying the victims were unarmed and flying humanitarian missions. Military Pressure: As the case landed, the USS Nimitz strike group moved into the Caribbean, adding to fears in Havana and among observers that Washington is tightening the screws. Havana Pushback: Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel called the indictment a “political maneuver” with “no legal basis,” while the Cuban government frames the move as part of a broader push that could justify aggression. South Florida Reaction: Cuban-Americans in Miami and beyond gathered at places like Freedom Tower to celebrate what many see as long-awaited accountability. Independence Day Twist: Even as May 20 was marked in the U.S., Cuba largely doesn’t celebrate it—an old reminder of U.S. leverage after 1902.

Raúl Castro Indictment Looms: The U.S. Justice Department is expected to unseal and announce criminal charges against 94-year-old former Cuban president Raúl Castro in Miami on Wednesday, tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown that killed four men, including three U.S. citizens—an escalation that Havana fears could come with “military options” as Washington ratchets pressure. Rubio’s “New Path” Pitch: Hours ahead of the expected announcement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a Spanish video offering $100M in food and medicine, urging distribution through the Catholic Church or trusted charities and blaming Cuba’s leadership and GAESA for shortages and corruption. Havana Pushes Back: Cuban officials and journalists describe the crisis as intensified “collective punishment,” with blackouts and fuel shortages worsening daily life. Pressure Beyond Law: The indictment talk is unfolding alongside broader U.S. sanctions and warnings of possible force, while Cuban exiles in South Florida prepare to watch the announcement at the Freedom Tower. Business Fallout: Canadian miner Sherritt signaled continued strain from U.S. sanctions on its Cuba operations, even as it explores deal options.

DOJ Pushes Raúl Castro Indictment: U.S. prosecutors are set to announce charges against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro on Wednesday in Miami, tied to the 1996 “Brothers to the Rescue” shootdown—an event U.S. officials will mark at the Freedom Tower with a ceremony honoring the victims. U.S.-Cuba Talks on Aid: At the same time, Washington says it held talks with Havana over a $100M offer, with aid routed through Catholic Relief Services and Samaritan’s Purse rather than directly to the Cuban government. Sanctions Tighten Pressure: The U.S. also rolled out fresh sanctions targeting Cuban regime-aligned actors and security/intelligence-linked figures, while Cuba warns the U.S. could trigger a “bloodbath” if it moves militarily. Fuel Crisis Reality Check: Cuba’s energy minister says the island has “absolutely no fuel oil” and “absolutely no diesel,” as blackouts and shortages keep worsening daily life. Humanitarian Ship Arrives: Amid the standoff, a Chinese-owned cargo vessel carrying Mexican and Uruguayan aid reportedly reached Havana, with Cuba calling it solidarity during “great economic difficulties.”

Sanctions Shock to Havana: The U.S. hit Cuba with fresh sanctions on 11 senior officials and intelligence/security-linked agencies, escalating a pressure campaign that Washington says targets repression and national-security threats. Energy Crisis Deepens: Cuba’s power system is still in freefall—electric availability is reported at just 1,150 MW early Tuesday versus 2,700 MW demand, with the night peak deficit projected to drive major outages. War Talk, Again: President Miguel Díaz-Canel doubled down on a “bloodbath” warning if the U.S. attacks, after renewed reports about Cuba’s alleged drone buildup and U.S. contingency planning. Diplomacy Signal—Maybe: In a striking contrast, Trump said he believes a diplomatic agreement with Cuba is possible and praised Cuban-Americans, even as Politico reports the administration is weighing military options. Local Fallout: Cuba’s MININT move to freeze accounts without notice is sparking outrage and fears for investment and small business. Health Strain: A new CEPR report links the 2017 sanctions tightening to a sharp rise in Cuba’s infant mortality, with the rate jumping 148% from 2018 to 2025.

US-Cuba Pressure Escalates: Cuba’s Díaz-Canel warns any US military action would trigger a “bloodbath,” after Axios reported Havana discussed using 300+ drones against Guantánamo Bay, US ships and Key West—Havana calls the claims a fabricated pretext. New Sanctions: Washington hit Cuba’s intelligence and senior officials with fresh Treasury designations, tightening the squeeze as fuel and power shortages deepen. Humanitarian Relief Arrives: A ship carrying aid from Mexico and Uruguay docked in Havana with hygiene items and food supplies for children, the elderly and vulnerable families. TrumpRx Push: In Washington, Trump expanded TrumpRx.gov by adding 600 generic drugs, with Mark Cuban appearing alongside the administration—then deleting a profanity-filled post after backlash. Broader Context: The week’s Cuba story is dominated by the looming possibility of US moves tied to Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown.

War Rhetoric Escalates: Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel warned that any U.S. military attack would trigger a “bloodbath with incalculable consequences,” calling Trump’s threats an international crime and insisting Cuba poses no threat to the U.S. Drone Claims Fuel Tensions: The latest flashpoint follows Axios reporting that Cuba has acquired 300+ drones from Russia and Iran and discussed possible strikes on Guantánamo Bay, U.S. ships, and Key West—claims Cuba’s foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez calls a “fraudulent case” meant to justify economic pressure and aggression. CIA Sends a Message: Amid the standoff and Cuba’s worsening energy crisis, CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Havana to deliver Trump’s demand for “fundamental changes,” with both sides publicly framing the talks differently. Pressure Beyond the Island: Separately, U.S. prosecutors are reportedly preparing to indict Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, adding another layer of legal and political pressure.

Vatican Signals Support for Havana: In Rome, the Vatican held a historic Mass for peace and development dedicated to Cuba, with Cardinal Michael Czerny urging a “disarmed peace” and condemning U.S. sanctions and interference. Drone Alarm Escalates: Cuba is pushing back hard after Axios and U.S. officials claimed Havana has 300+ military drones from Russia and Iran and discussed possible strikes on Guantánamo and even Key West; Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez called it a “fraudulent case,” insisting Cuba “neither threatens nor desires war” and citing the right to self-defense. Local Calm in Florida: South Florida officials and residents voiced concern, but the Florida Keys sheriff said there’s “no cause for alarm” amid the rumors. Raúl Castro in the Crosshairs: A Tampa pilot says U.S. officials plan to indict Raúl Castro on May 20 over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown. Energy Crisis Context: The drone story lands as Cuba continues to face severe fuel and power strain, with UN warnings about healthcare under pressure.

Drone Tensions: Cuba has acquired 300+ attack drones and, according to Axios citing classified intelligence, has discussed strike planning that could target Guantánamo Bay, U.S. vessels, and even Key West—though officials say Cuba isn’t seen as an imminent attacker. Energy Collapse: The island’s fuel crisis is now official: Cuba says it has “absolutely no” diesel or fuel oil, with Havana blackouts running 20–22 hours a day and hospitals and daily life taking the hit. Pressure Campaign: As the energy breakdown deepens, the U.S. is also moving toward legal action against former Raúl Castro, while CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s Havana trip adds to fears of escalating U.S. pressure. Local Survival Guidance: Cuba has quietly posted a “family guide” on surviving “enemy attacks,” including emergency kits and civil defense alerts—released just after Ratcliffe’s visit.

DOJ Pressure Campaign: The U.S. Justice Department is preparing to seek criminal charges against former Cuban President Raúl Castro, with prosecutors expected to unseal an indictment in Miami next week tied to the 1996 shootdown of Brothers to the Rescue aircraft. The move comes as Washington ratchets up its Cuba pressure amid the island’s fuel squeeze and rising fears of force. CIA Visit Signals Escalation: CIA Director John Ratcliffe has been in Havana for high-level meetings, underscoring that the U.S. is mixing diplomacy with hard pressure. Energy Crisis Hits Health: The WHO warns Cuba’s fuel shortage is forcing hospitals to suspend essential care, delaying tens of thousands of surgeries and raising risks for diseases like dengue and malaria. Local Life Under Strain: In Havana, people are bracing for possible “invasion” scenarios while blackouts and shortages keep worsening day to day.

Raúl Castro Indictment Push: The U.S. Justice Department is preparing to seek an indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 “Brothers to the Rescue” plane shootdown, a move that would require grand jury approval and could sharply raise fears of U.S. escalation. CIA Pressure in Havana: CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba to deliver President Trump’s message: engagement is on the table only if Cuba makes “fundamental changes,” including concerns about intelligence activity by Russia and China. Fuel Crisis Meets Politics: Cuba’s energy collapse—fuel oil and diesel reportedly exhausted—has fueled protests and deepened blackouts, while Washington’s pressure campaign continues alongside a reported $100 million humanitarian aid offer routed through the Catholic Church. Migration Warning: Former CIA chief Robert Gates warned the biggest U.S. risk is another mass migration emergency like Mariel, driven by desperation if Cuba’s collapse accelerates. Bahamas Crackdown: Separately, the Bahamas deported 107 Haitians amid an immigration enforcement drive.

US Pressure Escalates: The Justice Department is preparing to seek an indictment against former Cuban President Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown, with officials saying prosecutors expect to unseal it in Miami next Wednesday—an escalation that could raise fears of wider U.S. action. CIA Meets Havana: CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba and met senior officials, including Raúl Castro’s grandson, to deliver Trump’s message: engagement on economic and security issues only if Cuba makes “fundamental changes.” Energy Crisis on the Ground: Cuba’s fuel collapse is driving rolling blackouts and protests in Havana, while Las Tunas reported a partial SEN disconnection and a slow restoration of power to hospitals and essential services. Diplomacy vs. Sovereignty: Cuba’s top diplomat warned any military move would be a “bloodbath,” while Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez said the U.S. has formally offered $100 million in humanitarian aid—without rejecting aid in principle, but demanding it not be political. Local Life: In Las Tunas, students and young professionals are returning to teach and support science education, and aquaculture workers are stocking fingerlings to strengthen Majibacoa’s fish supply.

CIA Pressure Meets Havana: CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a rare trip to Cuba and met Cuban Interior Ministry officials, including Raúl Castro’s grandson, delivering Trump’s message that Washington is ready to engage on economic and security issues only if “fundamental changes” are made; Havana says the talks aimed at dialogue and insists Cuba is not a threat to U.S. national security. Fuel Crisis, Protests, and Blackouts: Cuba says it has exhausted remaining fuel oil and diesel, deepening a grid collapse that has left parts of Havana dark for more than 20 hours a day and sparked street unrest. Legal Escalation Looms: The U.S. Justice Department is reportedly pushing toward indicting 94-year-old Raúl Castro over the 1996 “Brothers to the Rescue” plane shootdown, as Washington tightens pressure while talks unfold. Humanitarian Aid With Strings: The U.S. renewed a $100M aid offer, but says Cuba must accept “meaningful reforms” for delivery.